I specialize in reading the tea leaves of the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This report has been around longer than I’ve been trading (25+yrs). I use the information provided in the COT report in three different ways; discretionary, mechanically, and seasonally. All three of our models take into account the relative behavior between the commercial… Read more →
By Jonathan Tepper. For the past few months, I’ve been trying to solve an economic puzzle: why are wages growing so slowly despite a growing economy and a booming stock market? Read more →
Our third seasonal trade this month comes in the May unleaded gasoline (RBOB) contract. The abbreviated publishing style of the coffee trade has met a warm reception so, we’ll continue with the nitty gritty up front, followed by the detail. Read more →
The first trade for March is in the May #11 sugar futures contract. This market recently broke critical support at $.13 per/lb on bearish fundamental news. Now, we expect seasonal weakness to force this market lower, ahead of the March 8th, USDA Supply and Demand report and on through the Prospective Plantings report on March 29th, extending losses to the… Read more →
We have five trades we’re expecting to trigger based on our seasonal analysis. We’ll be trading sugar, coffee, RBOB unleaded, Kansas City wheat, and WTI crude oil, respectively. Read more →
The Australian Dollar has declined by nearly 4% since late January. Much of the sell-off has been profit taking and technical as the market has built up significant resistance around .81 to the US Dollar. We think the upward trend remains intact through the end of the month and a re-test of the resistance at .81. We’ve employed a nine-year… Read more →
We’ve discussed the growing speculative bubble in the stock index futures both on our blog and in Modern Trader magazine. The market’s 10% flush has wiped out much of the speculative money. It will be another week before we can run the Commitment of Traders data and quantify our suppositions accordingly. We expect this washout to reset the deck and… Read more →
The second trade for February is in the March silver futures contract. We’ll be buying March silver futures late this week or, early next week. We’ll place a protective stop loss order 2% below the entry price. This is $.34 per ounce if silver is trading at $17 per ounce. Thirty-four cents in the futures market equals a $1,700 move… Read more →
Some of you have requested an update on where we stand since we began publishing the seasonal trades. You’ll find the results below, along with some trading notes and helpful hints. Best, Andy Waldock. Read more →
Most of our research focuses on the Commodity Futures Trading Commissions’ (CFTC) Commitment of Trades (COT) report. We believe that the commercial traders are more intimately familiar with a market’s fundamentals that provide their livelihood than are the speculators who tend to come and go from one hot market to the next. We’ll explain how the commercial traders are connected,… Read more →
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Speculators are approaching the new year with an eye towards stock market gains and a tightening Federal Reserve. This is a tough combination for interest rate futures to rally against. However, commercial traders are holding their most bullish position since last April. Therefore we expect the decline in interest rate futures, specifically the 10-year Treasury Notes and 30-year Treasury Bonds… Read more →
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