Some of you have requested an update on where we stand since we began publishing the seasonal trades. You’ll find the results below, along with some trading notes and helpful hints. Best, Andy Waldock. Read more →
The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to move higher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial trader position and seasonal strength, which should create a bit of a saucer base and bottom. Read more →
Our last new trade for November is short selling the February lean hog contract. The commercial hog producers are becoming increasingly anxious to get their animals sold forward at these prices against a backdrop of Chinese demand and regulatory uncertainty. Conversely, the speculators have been adding to their net long position as the market approaches solid resistance up to $.70 per/lb.… Read more →
Live cattle futures exhibit a unique seasonal pattern this time of year. The pattern is unique because there are potentially two seasonal trades between Thanksgiving and New Year. Many times, this creates anear reversal pattern, just as we had last year. We made more than $4k per contract on these two trades just last year. Now, the February live cattle… Read more →
US Futures Market Hours Thanksgiving 2018 Our office will be closed Friday, November 23rd and Monday, November 26th. I’ll still check emails but phone calls will go straight to Chicago. Best, Andy Waldock. Read more →
Every month brings many seasonal trading possibilities. Years of work with the Commitment of Traders data has shown me that not all seasonal trades are created equally. Our program is now one year old and the seasonal results have been quite solid. I’m pleased with the trading plan I’ve put together which has included limited risk, reasonable winning percentage and still… Read more →
The commercial coffee producers have taken the upper hand in the December coffee futures contract ahead of seasonal weakness through month’s end. Read more →
The 30yr T-Bonds are oversold on a weekly basis in the face of the most bullish commercial trader position we’ve seen since April of 2010. While I still believe that interest rates have turned and will move structurally higher for quite some time, it appears that the sp[eculators may have gotten ahead of the market. We’ll see. Tomorrow’s unemployment report… Read more →
We expect to sell the December British Pound on Wednesday night for Thursday’s trade. We’ll be risking 2.5% from the Wednesday night’s opening price. This equals 330 points or $2,062.50 per contract. Initial margin for the British Pound is currently $1,650. Finally, we plan to hold the trade through the first week of October. Read more →
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The British Pound is facing severe headwinds as Brexit negotiations begin to take center stage ahead of the EU Summit starting October 18th. Read more →
There are many phrases for capitulation. Very few have happy endings. I specialize in the analysis of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. This report separates the traders into three primary categories; commercial, large speculator, and small speculators. Big silver bugs, pools and, funds fall into the large speculator category. Throughout the history of this report, the… Read more →
There are typically three solid seasonal setups, annually in the corn market. The first is a short sale following the pre-planting fears. The second aligns with the 4th of July. We skipped this trade due to corn’s precipitous trade war decline. The market’s recent bounce has proven the statistical assumption that the market had fallen too far, too quickly correct. The… Read more →
I believe the copper market will peak following one more bounce off of the support around $3 per pound. We have opposing market forces between the copper producers’ forward selling and a seasonally strong month for copper based on a booming economy and construction sector. The speculators are carrying a record long position expecting industrial needs to continue while copper producers are… Read more →
We’ve been writing about the largest traders’ growing short position in the S&P futures. In fact, they’ve been net sellers in seven out of the last eight weeks. Let’s face it, size matters. The mini S&P 500 futures are the most liquid of the stock index futures and therefore present a much larger capital base. Now that the selling has spilled… Read more →
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