Blog Archives

pigs

Commercial Selling Ahead of Seasonal Hog Decline

Our last new trade for November is short selling the February lean hog contract. The commercial hog producers are becoming increasingly anxious to get their animals sold forward at these prices against a backdrop of Chinese demand and regulatory uncertainty. Conversely, the speculators have been adding to their net long position as the market approaches solid resistance up to $.70 per/lb.… Read more →

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Unemployment Short Trap

The 30yr T-Bonds are oversold on a weekly basis in the face of the most bullish commercial trader position we’ve seen since April of 2010. While I still believe that interest rates have turned and will move structurally higher for quite some time, it appears that the sp[eculators may have gotten ahead of the market. We’ll see. Tomorrow’s unemployment report… Read more →

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Silver Bugs Turn Bearish

There are many phrases for capitulation. Very few have happy endings. I specialize in the analysis of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. This report separates the traders into three primary categories; commercial, large speculator, and small speculators. Big silver bugs, pools and, funds fall into the large speculator category. Throughout the history of this report, the… Read more →

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Wild Action Ahead in the Copper Market

I believe the copper market will peak following one more bounce off of the support around $3 per pound. We have opposing market forces between the copper producers’ forward selling and a seasonally strong month for copper based on a booming economy and construction sector. The speculators are carrying a record long position expecting industrial needs to continue while copper producers are… Read more →

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