Some of you have requested an update on where we stand since we began publishing the seasonal trades. You’ll find the results below, along with some trading notes and helpful hints. Best, Andy Waldock. Read more →
The commercial coffee producers have taken the upper hand in the December coffee futures contract ahead of seasonal weakness through month’s end. Read more →
The 30yr T-Bonds are oversold on a weekly basis in the face of the most bullish commercial trader position we’ve seen since April of 2010. While I still believe that interest rates have turned and will move structurally higher for quite some time, it appears that the sp[eculators may have gotten ahead of the market. We’ll see. Tomorrow’s unemployment report… Read more →
We expect to sell the December British Pound on Wednesday night for Thursday’s trade. We’ll be risking 2.5% from the Wednesday night’s opening price. This equals 330 points or $2,062.50 per contract. Initial margin for the British Pound is currently $1,650. Finally, we plan to hold the trade through the first week of October. Read more →
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The British Pound is facing severe headwinds as Brexit negotiations begin to take center stage ahead of the EU Summit starting October 18th. Read more →
There are many phrases for capitulation. Very few have happy endings. I specialize in the analysis of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders report. This report separates the traders into three primary categories; commercial, large speculator, and small speculators. Big silver bugs, pools and, funds fall into the large speculator category. Throughout the history of this report, the… Read more →
There are typically three solid seasonal setups, annually in the corn market. The first is a short sale following the pre-planting fears. The second aligns with the 4th of July. We skipped this trade due to corn’s precipitous trade war decline. The market’s recent bounce has proven the statistical assumption that the market had fallen too far, too quickly correct. The… Read more →
I believe the copper market will peak following one more bounce off of the support around $3 per pound. We have opposing market forces between the copper producers’ forward selling and a seasonally strong month for copper based on a booming economy and construction sector. The speculators are carrying a record long position expecting industrial needs to continue while copper producers are… Read more →
We’ve been writing about the largest traders’ growing short position in the S&P futures. In fact, they’ve been net sellers in seven out of the last eight weeks. Let’s face it, size matters. The mini S&P 500 futures are the most liquid of the stock index futures and therefore present a much larger capital base. Now that the selling has spilled… Read more →
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The Canadian Dollar has been trading sideways for the last month. Closer inspection reveals a shift in big money’s bias ahead of a predicted window of seasonal strength. Read more →
Coffee has been in a downward trend since November of 2016. Therefore, it’s no wonder that coffee growers have been keen to sell their expected forward production on any rally in prices. Coffee producers have now been sellers for three straight weeks as coffee has climbed nearly 10% since mid-April, and their selling generated a Discretionary COT Signals short sale using the setup,… Read more →
Guest post by John Mauldin. What do rising rates mean? This piece puts it all in perspective. Hope it helps, Andy Waldock. Read more →
Recent trade discussions have been unfavorable to the domestic agricultural markets, including June live cattle, which have fallen more than 18% in six weeks. There are two reasons we believe cattle will bounce. First, the commercial traders, in this case, the packers, have been net buyers for seven straight weeks. The strength of their buying states that they believe we’ve reached… Read more →
Our Discretionary Commitment of Traders strategy has just issued a sell signal in the June S&P 500 futures based on the record amounts of commercial selling we’ve seen during April’s bounce. Read more →
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