The Canadian Dollar has been trading sideways for the last month. Closer inspection reveals a shift in big money’s bias ahead of a predicted window of seasonal strength. Read more →
Blog Archives
Coffee Producers on Sell Side Ahead of Seasonal Weakness
Coffee has been in a downward trend since November of 2016. Therefore, it’s no wonder that coffee growers have been keen to sell their expected forward production on any rally in prices. Coffee producers have now been sellers for three straight weeks as coffee has climbed nearly 10% since mid-April, and their selling generated a Discretionary COT Signals short sale using the setup,… Read more →
Spring Chart Fling
Guest post by John Mauldin. What do rising rates mean? This piece puts it all in perspective. Hope it helps, Andy Waldock. Read more →
Oversold Cattle Due to Bounce
Recent trade discussions have been unfavorable to the domestic agricultural markets, including June live cattle, which have fallen more than 18% in six weeks. There are two reasons we believe cattle will bounce. First, the commercial traders, in this case, the packers, have been net buyers for seven straight weeks. The strength of their buying states that they believe we’ve reached… Read more →
Short Sale Triggered by Record S&P 500 Selling
Our Discretionary Commitment of Traders strategy has just issued a sell signal in the June S&P 500 futures based on the record amounts of commercial selling we’ve seen during April’s bounce. Read more →
Record Silver Position Prepped for Final Test
A very rare occurrence is taking place in the silver market; silver processors and industrial users are more bullish on prices than the silver bugs. I specialize in reading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This report breaks down the positions being held by the various market participants. We focus on the battle between the commercial… Read more →
Silver Chart with Record Commercial Long Position
Euro FX to Test February High
We will be buying the June Euro currency futures late this week for our third seasonal entry this month. We expect to hold the position for approximately three weeks while risking just one percent from the opening price, once the trade is triggered. Read more →
May Soybean Buy Signal
We’ll be buying May soybeans either Friday or, Monday night for our second seasonal trade this month. This trade attempts to capture the upward bias of the market between the USDA’s Prospective Planting report at the end of March through early spring planting fears. Allowing the market to quiet down after the $.50 spike following the Prospective Plantings report makes… Read more →
British Pound Buy Signal
We will be buying the June British Pound for our first seasonal entry in April. We’ll buy the June British Pound futures sometime between Thursday and Monday, depending on the market’s action. This will be one of our longer holding periods as we expect to let the market run through the rest of the month. Read more →
Commercial Traders Aggressively Selling S&P 500 Futures
There’s been a lot of talk about trade wars triggering an overdue stock market correction. We all pick up our signals from different places. I watch the Commitment of Traders report, and commercial traders sold more mini-S&P 500 futures contracts last week than any week since September of 2007. This has brought the commercial traders’ net position to its most… Read more →
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Crude Oil Buy Signal
The last trade in our March seasonal portfolio is in the May crude oil contract. We expect the petroleum rally to continue. Our seasonal program will most likely trigger a buy signal Sunday night. This will make us long both crude and the RBOB unleaded contract. We’ll carry both of these positions through next week when we’ll offset the unleaded.… Read more →
Capitalizing on the End of the Wheat Rally
I specialize in reading the tea leaves of the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This report has been around longer than I’ve been trading (25+yrs). I use the information provided in the COT report in three different ways; discretionary, mechanically, and seasonally. All three of our models take into account the relative behavior between the commercial… Read more →
Why American Workers Aren’t Getting a Raise: An Economic Detective Story
By Jonathan Tepper. For the past few months, I’ve been trying to solve an economic puzzle: why are wages growing so slowly despite a growing economy and a booming stock market? Read more →
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