There are typically three solid seasonal setups, annually in the corn market. The first is a short sale following the pre-planting fears. The second aligns with the 4th of July. We skipped this trade due to corn’s precipitous trade war decline. The market’s recent bounce has proven the statistical assumption that the market had fallen too far, too quickly correct. The… Read more →
I believe the copper market will peak following one more bounce off of the support around $3 per pound. We have opposing market forces between the copper producers’ forward selling and a seasonally strong month for copper based on a booming economy and construction sector. The speculators are carrying a record long position expecting industrial needs to continue while copper producers are… Read more →
We’ve been writing about the largest traders’ growing short position in the S&P futures. In fact, they’ve been net sellers in seven out of the last eight weeks. Let’s face it, size matters. The mini S&P 500 futures are the most liquid of the stock index futures and therefore present a much larger capital base. Now that the selling has spilled… Read more →
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The Canadian Dollar has been trading sideways for the last month. Closer inspection reveals a shift in big money’s bias ahead of a predicted window of seasonal strength. Read more →
Coffee has been in a downward trend since November of 2016. Therefore, it’s no wonder that coffee growers have been keen to sell their expected forward production on any rally in prices. Coffee producers have now been sellers for three straight weeks as coffee has climbed nearly 10% since mid-April, and their selling generated a Discretionary COT Signals short sale using the setup,… Read more →
Guest post by John Mauldin. What do rising rates mean? This piece puts it all in perspective. Hope it helps, Andy Waldock. Read more →
Recent trade discussions have been unfavorable to the domestic agricultural markets, including June live cattle, which have fallen more than 18% in six weeks. There are two reasons we believe cattle will bounce. First, the commercial traders, in this case, the packers, have been net buyers for seven straight weeks. The strength of their buying states that they believe we’ve reached… Read more →
Our Discretionary Commitment of Traders strategy has just issued a sell signal in the June S&P 500 futures based on the record amounts of commercial selling we’ve seen during April’s bounce. Read more →
A very rare occurrence is taking place in the silver market; silver processors and industrial users are more bullish on prices than the silver bugs. I specialize in reading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This report breaks down the positions being held by the various market participants. We focus on the battle between the commercial… Read more →
We will be buying the June Euro currency futures late this week for our third seasonal entry this month. We expect to hold the position for approximately three weeks while risking just one percent from the opening price, once the trade is triggered. Read more →
We’ll be buying May soybeans either Friday or, Monday night for our second seasonal trade this month. This trade attempts to capture the upward bias of the market between the USDA’s Prospective Planting report at the end of March through early spring planting fears. Allowing the market to quiet down after the $.50 spike following the Prospective Plantings report makes… Read more →
We will be buying the June British Pound for our first seasonal entry in April. We’ll buy the June British Pound futures sometime between Thursday and Monday, depending on the market’s action. This will be one of our longer holding periods as we expect to let the market run through the rest of the month. Read more →
There’s been a lot of talk about trade wars triggering an overdue stock market correction. We all pick up our signals from different places. I watch the Commitment of Traders report, and commercial traders sold more mini-S&P 500 futures contracts last week than any week since September of 2007. This has brought the commercial traders’ net position to its most… Read more →
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