Coffee has been in a downward trend since November of 2016. Therefore, it’s no wonder that coffee growers have been keen to sell their expected forward production on any rally in prices. Coffee producers have now been sellers for three straight weeks as coffee has climbed nearly 10% since mid-April, and their selling generated a Discretionary COT Signals short sale using the setup,… Read more →
Recent trade discussions have been unfavorable to the domestic agricultural markets, including June live cattle, which have fallen more than 18% in six weeks. There are two reasons we believe cattle will bounce. First, the commercial traders, in this case, the packers, have been net buyers for seven straight weeks. The strength of their buying states that they believe we’ve reached… Read more →
Our Discretionary Commitment of Traders strategy has just issued a sell signal in the June S&P 500 futures based on the record amounts of commercial selling we’ve seen during April’s bounce. Read more →
A very rare occurrence is taking place in the silver market; silver processors and industrial users are more bullish on prices than the silver bugs. I specialize in reading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This report breaks down the positions being held by the various market participants. We focus on the battle between the commercial… Read more →
We will be buying the June Euro currency futures late this week for our third seasonal entry this month. We expect to hold the position for approximately three weeks while risking just one percent from the opening price, once the trade is triggered. Read more →
There’s been a lot of talk about trade wars triggering an overdue stock market correction. We all pick up our signals from different places. I watch the Commitment of Traders report, and commercial traders sold more mini-S&P 500 futures contracts last week than any week since September of 2007. This has brought the commercial traders’ net position to its most… Read more →
I specialize in reading the tea leaves of the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This report has been around longer than I’ve been trading (25+yrs). I use the information provided in the COT report in three different ways; discretionary, mechanically, and seasonally. All three of our models take into account the relative behavior between the commercial… Read more →
The Australian Dollar has declined by nearly 4% since late January. Much of the sell-off has been profit taking and technical as the market has built up significant resistance around .81 to the US Dollar. We think the upward trend remains intact through the end of the month and a re-test of the resistance at .81. We’ve employed a nine-year… Read more →
We’ve discussed the growing speculative bubble in the stock index futures both on our blog and in Modern Trader magazine. The market’s 10% flush has wiped out much of the speculative money. It will be another week before we can run the Commitment of Traders data and quantify our suppositions accordingly. We expect this washout to reset the deck and… Read more →
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