Our last new trade for November is short selling the February lean hog contract. The commercial hog producers are becoming increasingly anxious to get their animals sold forward at these prices against a backdrop of Chinese demand and regulatory uncertainty. Conversely, the speculators have been adding to their net long position as the market approaches solid resistance up to $.70 per/lb.… Read more →
Live cattle futures exhibit a unique seasonal pattern this time of year. The pattern is unique because there are potentially two seasonal trades between Thanksgiving and New Year. Many times, this creates anear reversal pattern, just as we had last year. We made more than $4k per contract on these two trades just last year. Now, the February live cattle… Read more →
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Recent trade discussions have been unfavorable to the domestic agricultural markets, including June live cattle, which have fallen more than 18% in six weeks. There are two reasons we believe cattle will bounce. First, the commercial traders, in this case, the packers, have been net buyers for seven straight weeks. The strength of their buying states that they believe we’ve reached… Read more →
December has been a solid success as our first full month trading our new seasonal analysis. Now, as quickly as the February live cattle futures have fallen, we expect them to bounce. Yes, this seasonal trade is exactly the opposite of the live cattle trade we sold short for a $3,000 profit earlier this week. Read more →
Our next new positions are in the copper and live cattle markets. The markets are closed Thursday, and we’ll be out of the office on Friday. Don’t worry, the nightly COT Signals email will go out as usual, and will update any new seasonal actions to be taken. We’ll go over the specifics of the copper trade then, live cattle,… Read more →
Live cattle prices have risen more than 14% since the September low, and more than 40% since their October 2016 low. This rally has been sufficient to generate a bit of speculative euphoria. Speculators actually set a net long record this past June, at the year’s high and are within a whisker of establishing a new bullish net long record… Read more →
Commercial traders in the August feeder cattle futures have built up a near record short position ahead of this contract’s typical seasonal weakness. When we combine these factors with the technical picture on the chart below, you’ll see why we’ve already initiated short positions in this market. Read more →
February 2017 Modern Trader Commitments of Traders column.
There are two main points we intend to drive home. The first is that the incoming administration is pro-petroleum and steel. The second is that accurate price forecasting, and hedging by U.S. farmers is more critical now than ever. President Trump campaigned on the slogan “Make America great again.” The dialogue since his win has focused on which version of… Read more →
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