Live cattle futures exhibit a unique seasonal pattern this time of year. The pattern is unique because there are potentially two seasonal trades between Thanksgiving and New Year. Many times, this creates anear reversal pattern, just as we had last year. We made more than $4k per contract on these two trades just last year. Now, the February live cattle… Read more →
Live cattle prices have risen more than 14% since the September low, and more than 40% since their October 2016 low. This rally has been sufficient to generate a bit of speculative euphoria. Speculators actually set a net long record this past June, at the year’s high and are within a whisker of establishing a new bullish net long record… Read more →
February 2017 Modern Trader Commitments of Traders Column
The live cattle market spent all of spring and early summer in a tight trading range roughly bound by $155 on the high side and supported near $147 on the low side. The market has finally created some action by falling through the support near $148 over the last two weeks with the current low now near $145. 50. Chart readers… Read more →
There are three markets in the meat futures sector with enough volume and liquidity to attract both hedging and speculative activity. These are the lean hog futures along with the feeder and live cattle markets. The live cattle market is best thought of as cattle on the farm while feeders are the cattle that have made the journey from the… Read more →
The live cattle market was up 28% in 2014 and the Feeder cattle market was up 32% for the year. The cattle markets made all-time highs in 2014 as the U.S. had its smallest slaughter in 20 years. This came as no surprise as we’ve discussed the declining trend in the domestic herd several times. Based on the cheap feed… Read more →
COT Signals live cattle futures results from following the commercial traders’ mechanical program. Read more →
Sometimes in this line of work the misery and poor circumstances of others creates profitable trading opportunities for our clients and us. Hurricane Sandy is making life miserable for millions of
people. However, it is also providing us with an opportunistic trade in the cattle market. Millions of houses, stores and restaurants without power means that there will be lots of spoilage.
Replacement of the red meat can only come from existing supply. Therefore, as we mentioned last week, tight current stocks will grow even tighter as the kill rate increases from animals already on
the feedlots …
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