The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to move higher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial trader position and seasonal strength, which should create a bit of a saucer base and bottom. Read more →
There are typically three solid seasonal setups, annually in the corn market. The first is a short sale following the pre-planting fears. The second aligns with the 4th of July. We skipped this trade due to corn’s precipitous trade war decline. The market’s recent bounce has proven the statistical assumption that the market had fallen too far, too quickly correct. The… Read more →
Live cattle prices have risen more than 14% since the September low, and more than 40% since their October 2016 low. This rally has been sufficient to generate a bit of speculative euphoria. Speculators actually set a net long record this past June, at the year’s high and are within a whisker of establishing a new bullish net long record… Read more →
We don’t normally spend time patting ourselves on the back as we’re usually too busy with the next trade. Today, however, we have no new trades primarily thanks to letting the winners we’ve recently published here, continue to run. Therefore, we’ll update our last several posts here at Equities.com and explain the process of our support and resistance based swing… Read more →
The group of markets known as the, “softs” or, “exotics” include markets like coffee, sugar, orange juice and cocoa. These are all traded on the Intercontinental Exchange and each market marches to its own beat. These markets are known for their volatile moves but rarely get the trading attention they deserve. For some, like orange juice, it’s due to low… Read more →
Today’s Scottish secession vote takes a 300-year-old issue and covers it with 21st century journalism. There’s hardly any angle that hasn’t been talked to death. Surprisingly, I’ve found something of major importance leading up to the vote that isn’t being discussed anywhere. The commercial traders in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders report are making a clear… Read more →
Is it possible that Ben Bernanke and now, Janet Yellen along with the rest of the Federal Reserve Board got it right? Have they captained us out of the depths of global financial collapse and into a new golden era of stock market gains and low interest rates? Quantitative Easing one, two and three along with Operation Twist were all… Read more →
Commercial traders in the stock index futures behave quite differently than the Index traders or, small speculators who act as their counterparts. Collectively, this is perfectly logical. Index traders are positive feedback traders. Positive feedback traders add on to their bullish positions as the market climbs and scale out of their bullish positions as the market declines. This keeps their portfolio balanced to their available cash resources. This also places them on the side most likely to buy the highs and sell the lows. Typical trend following. Small speculators are a sentiment wild card. Their position is …
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